The recent foreign policy debates are largely centered around our future energy needs. Frenetic economic diplomacy to secure nuclear power generation oil and gas contracts, and laying pipelines on the east as well as west to transport fossil fuels are certainly of value in the short and medium term. Long-term supply contracts and investments in exploration in oil-rich countries will give us some leverage. But we need to plan for the future with clarity in an integrated manner.
Let us look at the bigger picture to understand the threats to our energy security. A recent book – “Plan B 2.0” by Lester Brown – paints a grim picture of the global situation in the next hundred years. Brown is not an evangelist with apocalyptic vision. He is an optimist who recognizes the many opportunities to shape a better and more secure future in the next century.
Brown points out that we are very close to peak oil production, and, “indeed, when historians write about this period in history, they may well distinguish between before peak oil (BPO) and after peak oil (
The second approach separates the world’s principal oil-producing countries into two groups – those where production is falling and those where it is still rising. Of the 23 leading oil producers, output appears to have peaked in 15, and is still rising in eight. The post-peak countries include the
The third approach is to examine the actions of major oil companies themselves. Leading oil companies are investing heavily in buying up their own stocks. Mobil ($ 10 b) and Chevran Taxaco ($2.5b) spent vast amounts to buy back stock. As Brown says, “With little new oil to be discovered and world oil demand growing fast, companies appear to be realizing that their reserves will become even more valuable in the future”. Also, there is no substantial increase in exploration and development even after oil prices shot beyond $ 50 a barrel.
All these approaches lead to one inescapable conclusion. We must plan for after peak oil (
Third, we need to harness all renewable sources of wind, tidal energy and solar power. These forms of power are self-limiting, and can at best be tapped in small quantities at community level, and will work best in conjunction with centralized power grid.
The fourth is generation of biofuels utilizing our vast agricultural land, which at 140 mha accounts for 12% global farm land. In a fundamental sense, agriculture should meet most future energy needs, and supply fungible, easy-to-use biofuels. This will put pressure on food supplies. Plentiful, cheap oil distorted world economy over the past 50 years. In 1970, 1.49 bushels of wheat could buy 1.79 barrels of oil. Since then, this ratio increased from 1 to 13, meaning that now we need to sell 13 bushels of wheat to buy one barrel of oil. As food and fuel compete for land, the need for biofuel production will raise food prices. That may actually be good news for a country like
Clearly, integrated energy management is the key to our energy security. Segmented approach – coal, power, oil and gas, non-conventional energy, agriculture – can no longer yield dividend. Will the government act on Plan B quickly?
Very important points JP sir. The government should aggressively diversify our energy portfolio. Especially through Coal and Nuclear sectors.. Fortunately in nuclear front, the story is positive ever since the nuclear deals with Russia and US. This should also be the case in coal mining sector too . Advanced, cleaner, coal processing technologies are available elsewhere.. If India can not develop this technologies in house, it should look for foreign tie ups.
ReplyDeleteI have listened to one of the Lester Browns' speeches two years back. He makes very convincing case for the urgent need for implementing Plan B of development. What makes him unique among other environmentalist is his vision and reasonableness. He understand the industry and have reasonable expectation of how and why industry should become more environment friendly. World needs more environmentalist like him.
Dear Babin,
ReplyDeleteI agree with you on Lester Brown’s approach. We need a harmonious reconciliation of environmental concerns with the imperatives of wealth creation to fulfill human needs.
Brown certainly takes a moderate position. What is more, he seems to be optimistic about the future. He convincingly points out that all the ingredients of Plan B have already been developed by modern societies, and that the answers are staring us in the face. In many ways, India is well-placed: as a society, we are attuned to thrift, recycling and conservation; we are blessed with plentiful sunshine round the year which can be converted into renewable energy without net addition of carbon dioxide; and we have about 12% of the world’s agricultural land. I am sure we will develop the technologies and institutions to harness these advantages and convert a crisis into an opportunity.